Best Picture Nominees (descending in order of likelihood of nomination and subsequent win)
1. The Social Network
Forget your apprehensions over seeing a movie about facebook, it's not about facebook. It's truly very good, well written, well acted. It's gonna win.
haven't seen it, heard it was really good.
SOOOOO good
very good family drama, the fighting kinda takes a back seat to the family, though and it was kinda anticlimactic in my opinion. Great performances, ensemble cast.
Great performance by Portman, AWESOME cinematography, very moody, very discomforting, very well-done
Brilliant. So original and so well done. Yeah, it has the feel of summer blockbuster, less focus on character, more focus on blowing your mind. Hey. It still blew your mind. Give it a chance. If The Social Network wasn't so good, I would be lobbying hard for this one.
The token animation slot filler. It WAS good, and I loved revisiting the Toys that I grew up with. I wasn't as blown away by this one as everyone else was, but it'll get nominated.
Independent. Apparently it had a great lead performance and a genre mashing white trash noir thing going for it. Haven't seen it, but a lot of critics liked it.
The Coens deliver again. They'll get nominated again. Great performances, great western feel, look, dialogue. Hailee Steinfeld, I'm considering your future with great interest. You might not know it, but these guys are among the best of the best.
Independent film, VERY west coast liberal if you know what I'm saying. Quirky story, good performances.
Best Director Nominees
1. David Fincher (he's been around for a long time, has made several great movies, his time has come)
2. Darren Aronofsky (He's got a talent for making you very uncomfortable)
3. Christopher Nolan (My personal favorite. He's a genius and though he lacks in comparison to these
other guys in what he can draw from or how he focuses on character, technically, he's brilliant. His time will come)
4. Danny Boyle (127 Hours largely takes place in an enclosed space with one character and it's awesome. Respect)
5. Coen Bros., Tom Hooper or Some Indie sonofagun (The Coens have won 4 Oscars and have more nominations than Meryl Streep, Hooper directed The King's Speech which was apparently really good but as I haven't seen it, can't really make that call. It's unlikely, but both of them may get overlooked in favor of some younger blood, most likely David O. Russell of the Fighter)
Best Actor Nominees
1. Colin Firth in the King's Speech (He got snubbed last year, it won't happen again this year.)
2. James Franco in 127 Hours (If Firth were to get snubbed, I would love to see Franco win. 127 Hours was SOOOO good.)
3. Jesse Eisenberg in The Social Network (maybe not the greatest performance, but no doubt a solid one and the face of the best picture front-runner)
4. Ryan Gosling in Blue Valentine (He's getting a lot of buzz and he's a great actor, but I haven't seen the movie)
5. Javier Bardem in Biutiful (He's getting a lot of buzz and he's a great actor, but I haven't seen the movie)
OR Robert Duvall in Get Low (Vintage Duvall, crotchety old man living with a haunting secret that he's gotta get off his chest. He's good, says "yeah. . . yeah" a lot but it's a great performance.)
Best Actress Nominees
1. Natalie Portman in Black Swan (She goes crazy and it's scary-awesome)
2. Annette Bening in The Kids Are All Right (good performance, she may overtake Portman because of her age and because she hasn't been recognized yet. This category is one to watch)
3. Julianne Moore in The Kids Are All Right (good performance, deserving of a nomination at least.)
4. Jennifer Lawrence in Winter's Bone (apparently she was pretty good, and she's young so that's two things going for her nomination)
5. Michelle Williams in Blue Valentine (Apparently she was really good. The trailer for this movie nearly made me cry)
Best Supporting Actor
1. Christian Bale in the Fighter (major weight loss, bald patch, surprisingly funny. plus Christian Bale just goes to town as the coked out boxer brother of Marky Mark in the Fighter. He'll win and he deserves it.)
2. Andrew Garfield in The Social Network (He does a great job, there's no denying.)
3. Geoffrey Rush in The King's Speech (He's won his Oscar, he's been nominated numerous times. He'll get the nomination this time, but I wouldn't expect him to win it.)
4. Matt Damon in True Grit (Damon is just great. He got robbed last year by not getting nominated for the Informant. One of these days, he's gonna blow us all away big time and I can't wait)
5. Vincent Cassel in Black Swan OR Mark Ruffalo in The Kids Are All Right OR Bill Murray in Get Low or Armie Hammer in The Social Network (they all do great, Ruffalo almost broke my heart in The Kids, Cassel hurt my feelings in Black Swan, Hammer is brilliant as the twins in Network and Murray made me laugh in Get Low)
Best Supporting Actress
1. Amy Adams in The Fighter
2. Hailee Steinfeld in True Grit
3. Melissa Leo in The Fighter
4. Helena Bonham Carter in The King's Speech
5. Somebody in Something
(Everybody except Steinfeld is about due for an award so your guess is as good as mine. I can vouch for Adams and Leo, they're both fantastic. I'd bet on Leo, she's the oldest and least celebrated of the 4. That Steinfeld was moved to the Supporting Actress category really makes me mad considering she is the focal point of True Grit. But at least this way she'll definitely get the nomination. I like her a lot.)
And now for some of my favorite minor award guesses.
Best Original Screenplay
Oh boy, it better be Inception. If not, it'll prolly get snubbed by The King's Speech or the Kids Are All Right. Toy Story 3.
Best Adapted Screenplay
The Social Network has got this one in the bag. Deserving contenders include 127 Hours and True Grit. Maybe even Scott Pilgrim.
Best Original Score
The Social Network. I forgot that it even had a score until I watched it yesterday. Reznor. Man, it's really good, I can't believe I forgot about it. Very tech-y and that opening titles theme is great. 127 Hours maybe, Inception maybe, The King's Speech maybe, Toy Story 3 maybe.
Best Cinematography
I really really like the cinematography in Black Swan. the camera dances with the dancers and it's really cool. Likely contenders will be Inception, The Social Network, The King's Speech and True Grit. True Grit was pretty. Maybe Scott Pilgrim. Get Low was really pretty, too. It was directed by a cinematographer.
Best Visual Effects
Scott Pilgrim, Iron Man 2, or Inception. I don't know if the spinning hallway would fall under visual effects considering this category is usually dominated by cgi heavy contenders, but that spinning hallway gives me goosebumps every time I watch Inception.
Best Editing
The Social Network, Inception, Scott Pilgrim (I hope)
My favorite movie this year that probably won't win anything
Okay. Scott Pilgrim vs. The World was awesome. Great music, great visuals, great editing (sound effects and titles ala comic books, seamless transitions from scene to scene, snappy snappy snappy), and this is the only movie that I've kinda liked Michael Cera in. Then there's the ensemble cast. It's a generational movie, which I like. It's in my top 5 for the year.
